September 17: FOUR RIGHT, ONE TO GO

This from just in the BBC:
Investors edgy as US stocks fall
US stock markets sank on fears the bailout of insurance giant AIG would not be enough to dispel the gloom engulfing the financial world.
Finance firms slumped with Goldman Sachs 24% lower while Morgan Stanley saw shares 32% down in afternoon trade.
Investors were unnerved by recent dramatic events, including Lehman Brothers' demise, leading European indexes to end down.

And this:
Trading in Russian shares halted
Trading on Russia's main stock exchanges has been suspended following steep falls in shares prices this week.
The shock developments on Wall Street this week spurred a sell-off in Russian shares.
Following a plunge of 6%, the dollar-denominated RTS index halted trading on Wednesday until further notice. It is down almost 60% since its May peak.

Today, CNN reported:
Defense stocks slide with rattled market
September 17, 2008: 11:34 AM EST
NY (Associated Press) - Defense stocks led by Boeing Co. tumbled Wednesday afternoon as anxieties over the financial sector rippled through the U.S. market even after the government agreed to bail out insurer American International Group. Broader stock indicators also fell.

And finally:
Dow slips 450 as Wall Street turmoil deepens

Yes — alas — my fourth prediction has proved all-too-true. You'll recall that during the week of May 12, 2008, I made five public predictions, one per day. Here was the fourth:

The Crash is coming. Despite the current soaring, record-setting stock prices, I predict a major — and I mean major — stock market crash in less than 12 months. To be clear, I'm not talking slips and blips; I'm predicting a run-for-the-hills c-r-a-s-h.

Great. So I was right. The question is: How come a financial ignoramus such as I got it right, and so very many highly qualified pundits, politicians and experts got it wrong, wrong, wrong?

Here's my theory. They feel a pressure — inner and/or outer — not to upset things, not to cause panic, not to, well, tell the truth. So they selectively perceive, selectively report, keep their jobs and pray for sunshine.

Me, I'm just a guy with no clients, no followers and who's never taken an economics course. I feel no such restraints. And thus, I allow myself to see what’s there to be seen: great swaths of foreclosed houses, massive layoffs, failing banks, government rescues. Didn’t take genius; just open eyes.

If I'd believed the experts instead of my eyes, I'd be a wee bit peeved today. In their caution and ‘responsibility,’ they've not told us the truth. Believing them has proved costly, often disastrously so.

This is one of those times I wish I weren't right. But in my book, open eyes are preferable to following the crowd. Just because you're marching in step doesn't mean you're heading in the right direction.

Peace.

jules

All the predictions are also on www.julesolder.com